The Influence of Global Oil Price Volatility and Exchange Rates on Stock Returns in the Energy Sector in Indonesia

Nidrah; Mufidatul Azmi

doi:10.59890/ijaamr.v4i5.222

Authors

Nidrah Universitas Negeri Makassar
Mufidatul Azmi Universitas Negeri Makassar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59890/ijaamr.v4i5.222

Keywords:

Global Oil Price Volatility, Exchange Rate, Stock Returns, Energy Sector, Indonesia Stock Exchange

Abstract

Global economic uncertainty caused by geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in commodity prices has increased risks in emerging capital markets, including Indonesia. This study examines the effect of global oil price volatility and rupiah exchange rate fluctuations on the stock returns of energy sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Using a quantitative approach and multiple linear regression analysis, the research analyzes energy sector issuers during the 2021–2025 period. The results show that oil price volatility and the rupiah exchange rate do not significantly affect stock returns, either partially or simultaneously. The model also demonstrates a low explanatory power, indicating that stock return movements are influenced more by internal company fundamentals and domestic energy policies than by external macroeconomic variables. These findings suggest that the Indonesian energy sector is relatively resilient to global economic shocks. Therefore, investors should focus more on firm-level performance and financial conditions when making investment decisions in the energy sector

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