Analyzing the Effectiveness of State Debt Management in Supporting Fiscal Stability: A Case Study of Indonesia

Arijo Isnoer Narjono

doi:10.59890/ijasr.v3i7.71

Authors

Arijo Isnoer Narjono University of Lumajang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59890/ijasr.v3i7.71

Keywords:

Fiscal Stability, Debt-to-GDP Ratio, Interest Burden on Debt, Short-Term Debt Proportion

Abstract

Effective management of national debt plays a critical role in maintaining fiscal stability, particularly for developing countries like Indonesia, which must balance the need for financing with the risks of fiscal vulnerability. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of Indonesia’s state debt management in supporting fiscal stability over the 2015–2024 period. A quantitative descriptive approach was employed, using multiple linear regression to assess the relationship between fiscal stability and three independent variables: the debt-to-GDP ratio (%), interest burden on debt (%), and the proportion of short-term debt (%). Fiscal stability served as the dependent variable. The findings reveal that the debt-to-GDP ratio has a positive and significant effect on fiscal stability (β = 0.451; p = 0.012). In contrast, the interest burden on debt (β = -0.682; p = 0.021) and the proportion of short-term debt (β = -0.239; p = 0.049) show negative and significant effects. The regression model produced an R² value of 0.732, indicating that 73.2% of the variation in fiscal stability can be explained by these three independent variables. Classical assumption tests (normality, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity) confirmed the model's validity and reliability. This study concludes that effective debt management—through diversification of financing sources, restructuring of debt portfolios, and prioritization of productive spending—is essential for strengthening Indonesia’s fiscal stability

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